China’s support for Putin may be fading

China appears intent on acting as a mediator in the search for a negotiated peace in Ukraine. A weekend summit in Saudi Arabia saw Beijing express its willingness to attend further international talks aimed at resolving the conflict. The forum, which excluded Russia but included Ukrainian representatives and national security envoys from two dozen countries, focused on a 10-point peace plan proposed by Kyiv. It concluded without anything specific emerging, apart from the increasingly active role that Beijing is seeking to play. 

China declined to attend similar talks in Copenhagen recently and has been a supporter of Russia. At one stage, it agreed a “no limits” partnership with Vladimir Putin. Beijing’s so-called peace plan published earlier this year was a replica of Moscow’s demands and was rejected by Ukraine. 

But the latest intervention has not been dismissed out of hand, with some European observers seeing China’s attendance at the summit as a sign of Russia’s growing isolation. 

The Kremlin is relying on continued support from developing and non-aligned nations that have not necessarily joined Nato in condemning Russia. However these countries tend to line up behind China, not least because of the influence it wields in many countries in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. 

One European diplomat was quoted as welcoming the “broad, general support” from all delegates towards the idea that “respect of territorial integrity and [the] sovereignty of Ukraine needs to be at the heart of any peace settlement”. 

This, if true, is good news for Ukraine since its demands include the return of all territory ceded to Russia since 2014, including Crimea. Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace plan also includes measures to guarantee global food security, nuclear safety, humanitarian aid and prisoner release. President Zelensky said the Jeddah discussions showed that in “different continents with different political approaches to global affairs everyone is united by the priority of international law”. 

Many will be sceptical about China’s commitment to the sovereignty of nations, given its continuing threats to Taiwan. But if Beijing thinks its interests can be advanced by forcing Russia to the negotiating table on Kyiv’s terms, Putin may find his eastern ally less supportive than he had hoped.